Question

What will the US murder rate be in 2030?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters41

Community Prediction

5.48 per 100,000

(4.23 per 100,000 - 6.93 per 100,000)

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>20
community	4.229	5.475	6.932	0.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	4.229	—
median	5.475	—
upper 75%	6.932	—
Upper bound
>20	0.5%	—

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Nov 5, 2021

Closes:

Sep 27, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 7, 2021

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What will the US homicide rate per 100,000 be in the following years?

5.98

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

What will be the global rate of homicide deaths per 100,000 people in the following years?

5.32