Question
What will the US murder rate be in 2030?
Total Forecasters41
Community Prediction
5.56 per 100,000
(4.27 per 100,000 - 7.08 per 100,000)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 4.273 | — |
| median | 5.564 | — |
| upper 75% | 7.083 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >20 | 2.6% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2021
Closes:Sep 27, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 7, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Nov 5, 2021
Closes:Sep 27, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 7, 2021