7 comments
28 forecasters
Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?
75%chance
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2060
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 3000
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 6, 2021
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
1341 years
(480 - >3000)
1341 years
(480 - >3000)
56 forecasters
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
21% chance
44
How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?
10.5B people
(3.21B - 27.8B)
10.5B people
(3.21B - 27.8B)
70 forecasters