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Member Since
- December 11, 2020
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Forecaster Stats
Level
2 (Guesser)
Predictions
10 predictions on 9 questions (2 resolved)
Comments
136 comments on 62 questions
Rank
6366th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Alt-Protein Tournament
- Keep Virginia Safe Tournament
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- FluSight Challenge 2021/22
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Cultured Meat Tournament
- Forecasting AI Progress
- Mpox (Monkeypox)
- Autocrat Public Figures Series
- Biosecurity Tournament
- Improve the News
- Economist 2021
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
- Climate Tipping Points
- Transparent Replications
- Forecasting Our World in Data
- FluSight Challenge 2022/23
- Red Lines in Ukraine
- 🔰 2022Q4 Beginner Tournament 🔰
- 🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
- Economic Indicators
- 🤖 LLM Milestones 🤖
- 🔰 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
46 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Effective Altruism (2)
- Category – Distant Future (1)
- Human Sciences – Demography (1)
- Existential Risk (1)
Popular Questions
- Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100? (60 forecasts)
- Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years? (34 forecasts)