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Question
Will human population size recover to 5 billion by 3000CE if, by 2100, the population falls below 400 million without extinction occurring within 20 years?
Total Forecasters25
Community Prediction66%
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median 65.9%mean 60.4%
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If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
1.14k
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
30%
How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?
10.9B
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? commentsAuthors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
If the human population declines to fewer than 100 million, how many years would pass until the population is above 1 billion again?
1.14k
Will extinction occur within 20 years of the human population falling below 400 million, if the population falls that much by 2100?
30%
How many biological humans will be alive on December 31, 2300, conditional on there being more than 500 Million?
10.9B