Question

Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?

Resolved:Annulled

19 comments19

Total Forecasters118

Community Prediction

50%

(25% - 60%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks TomL

Opened:

Oct 7, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Mar 4, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 9, 2021

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