19 comments
118 forecasters
Before 2024, will Iran possess enough fissile material to make a warhead?
50%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 50% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Mar 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021