23 comments
165 forecasters
Will >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur by 2024, if there's at least 1 fatality from an offensive detonation by 2024?
5%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
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if there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2050, how many total detonations will there be by then?
46 forecasters
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21% chance
16