12 comments
81 forecasters
Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 30, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021