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1
38
forecasters
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38 forecasters
Nuclear Technology & Risks
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Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?
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34 forecasters
US Reaction to NATO Offensive Detonation
75%
chance
7 comments
27 forecasters
Date of First Nuclear Detonation
Current estimate
Feb 2046
0 comments
24 forecasters
First Detonation by 2050 Inadvertent
21.8%
chance
5 comments
47 forecasters
Number of Nuclear Detonations by 2050
over 100
39%
over 1,000
9%
0 comments
34 forecasters
Nuc. Detonation in Non-Nuclear-Armed State
70%
chance
9 comments
314 forecasters
Countries With 1+ Fatality From Nuclear Det.
Ukraine
15.1%
Israel
13%
Pakistan
11%
India
10%
4 others
2 comments
23 forecasters
Largest Yield of Nuclear Detonation by 2050
Current estimate
322 kt
0 comments
11 forecasters
What % of nuc. detonations will be NSNWs?
Current estimate
0.923%