1 comment
29 forecasters
Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?
34%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 34% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 7, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 9, 2021
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
64.8% chance
31
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9% chance
20