The US has been struggling to control the COVID-19 pandemic over 2021, with the delta variant composing >50% of COVID cases since 1 July, 2021. 120,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 between 2021-07-01 and 2021-10-15. The pace of vaccinations has slowed from a peak of 3.5 million doses administered daily on 11 April, to an average of 700,000 doses daily between 1 June to 1 October.

That said, vaccinations continue steadily. Among the population over 12 years of age (those currently elligible to recieve the vaccine), 77% have recieved at least 1 dose, and the over-65 group has 95.6% with one dose (as of 2021-10-16). The Metaculus Community currently predicts an 87% chance that the FDA will approve a vaccine for children under 12 years old by the end of 2021, which may improve the US' herd immunity further.

Will a new variant of COVID-19 change all this? Is the COVID-19 pandemic waning, or will it rage on?

How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?

This question will resolve as the number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by the CDC, occurring in the year 2022. It will not be the cumulative deaths since 2020-01-23; we will measure deaths reported by 2023-01-01, minus all deaths from 2020-01-23 to 2022-01-01. If the CDC no longer reports this data, Metaculus Admins may approximate this figure with the best available data, at their discretion.