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US COVID-19 deaths in 2022

Question

The US has been struggling to control the COVID-19 pandemic over 2021, with the delta variant composing >50% of COVID cases since 1 July, 2021. 120,000 deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 between 2021-07-01 and 2021-10-15. The pace of vaccinations has slowed from a peak of 3.5 million doses administered daily on 11 April, to an average of 700,000 doses daily between 1 June to 1 October.

That said, vaccinations continue steadily. Among the population over 12 years of age (those currently elligible to recieve the vaccine), 77% have recieved at least 1 dose, and the over-65 group has 95.6% with one dose (as of 2021-10-16). The Metaculus Community currently predicts an 87% chance that the FDA will approve a vaccine for children under 12 years old by the end of 2021, which may improve the US' herd immunity further.

Will a new variant of COVID-19 change all this? Is the COVID-19 pandemic waning, or will it rage on?

How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?

This question will resolve as the number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by the CDC, occurring in the year 2022. It will not be the cumulative deaths since 2020-01-23; we will measure deaths reported by 2023-01-01, minus all deaths from 2020-01-23 to 2022-01-01. If the CDC no longer reports this data, Metaculus Admins may approximate this figure with the best available data, at their discretion.

To account for delays in reporting data, we will wait until 2023-02-01 to confirm the resolution value.

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