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Global Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths in 2022

Question

In terms of total deaths, the COVID-19 pandemic has already been more severe in 2021 than 2020. Globally, 1.9 million deaths were reported in 2020, compared to 3 million in 2021 (as of 17 October, 2021). Yet, gradually, the world is deploying COVID-19 vaccinations: taken as entire regions, North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and Oceana have seen 53 to 65% of their entire populations recieve at least one dose of a vaccine (as of 17 October, 2021). Sadly, Africa lags behind, at 7.6% recieving at least one dose.

How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?

This question will resolve as the number of deaths from COVID-19 reported by Our World In Data, occurring in the year 2022. It will not be the cumulative deaths since 2020-01-23; we will measure deaths reported by 2023-01-01, minus all deaths from 2020-01-23 to 2022-01-01. If OWID no longer reports this data, Metaculus Admins may approximate this figure with the best available data, at their discretion.

To account for delays in reporting data, we will wait until 2023-02-01 to confirm the resolution value.

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