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127 forecasters

14

127 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

89%chance

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11 comments76 forecasters

Non-profit organization develops first AGI

3 comments95 forecasters

Government project develops first AGI

3 comments95 forecasters

University group develops first AGI

18 comments76 forecasters

Nationalized organization develops first AGI

5 comments78 forecasters

Who will develop the first AGI?

7 comments103 forecasters

Group To Develop First TAI

1 comment40 forecasters

5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?

608 comments1.7k forecasters

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Current estimate