125 forecasters

Will the research group that is responsible for developing the first AGI be part of a for-profit corporation?

89%chance

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 5, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2039

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 7, 2021

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI has an AGI problem — and Microsoft just made it worse

Verge•Oct 29, 2025

OpenAI completes conversion to for-profit business after lengthy legal saga

Guardian•Oct 29, 2025

Sam Altman says OpenAI will have a ‘legitimate AI researcher’ by 2028

TechCrunch•Oct 29, 2025

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