Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
35
comments
575
forecasters
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
15%
chance
Share
Predict
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
TomL
Opened:
Oct 28, 2021
Closes:
Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:
Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
News Match
China Issues Warning to Trump Over Arms Sale to Taiwan
Newsweek
•
Nov 14, 2025
The U.S. versus China: Stabilizing the rivalry
Strategic Culture
•
Nov 13, 2025
China Threatens US Ally With ‘Severe Blow’
Newsweek
•
Nov 13, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will there be a US-China war before 2050?
15%
chance
60
Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?
2.5%
chance
294
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
1.5%
2030
1%
28
forecasters
Show More Questions