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35
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570
forecasters
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
14%
chance
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
TomL
Opened:
Oct 28, 2021
Closes:
Jan 1, 2035
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2035
Spot Scoring Time:
Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
News Match
US, China agree to open direct military hotline after Xi-Trump summit
FOX News
•
Nov 2, 2025
How China and Taiwan are Preparing for War
Newsweek
•
Nov 2, 2025
US, China agree to set up military-to-military channels, Hegseth says
Al Jazeera
•
Nov 2, 2025
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about Metaculus NewsMatch
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