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China-India War by 2035

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Horizons Project


Related Questions on Metaculus:

Will there be a China-India war by 2035?

For the purposes of this question, a China-India war is defined as the China and India collectively suffering at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year, as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the China and an ally of India or between India and an ally of the China will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur by January 1, 2035, this question will resolve negatively.

We here define battle related deaths as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies.

Resolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.

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