Question

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

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Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

63%

(53% - 75%)

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50%

community: 63%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

‘If Russia is coming, then we will bring the war to Russia’: Inside NATO’s muscular new deterrence plans

Defense One•Jun 17, 2025

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