Question
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
Total Forecasters31
Community Prediction
64.8%
(53% - 75%)
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
10%
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
10%
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21.9%