31 forecasters

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

64.8%chance

The community sees this as a toss-up.

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Authors:

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021