2 comments
22 forecasters
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
Current estimate
339 kt
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
21% chance
16
Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?
8% chance
20
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21% chance
21