Question
What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?
Total Forecasters22
Community Prediction
352 kt
(73.3 kt - 1244 kt)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1 kt | 2.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 73.34 kt | — |
| median | 352.4 kt | — |
| upper 75% | 1244 kt | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >50k kt | 12.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021