Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction

0.238%

(0.0886% - 0.483%)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	0.08861%	0.2378%	0.4828%
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	0.08861%	—
median	0.2378%	—
upper 75%	0.4828%	—

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

0.51

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be countervalue?

0.249