Question

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

1
5
Total Forecasters19
Community Prediction
25%
(16% - 30%)

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50%
community: 25%
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2029
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks