Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

5
25
Total Forecasters44
Community Prediction
6%
(2% - 10%)

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50%
community: 6%
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks