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1
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39
forecasters
Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
3%
chance
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Oct 28, 2021
Closes:
Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
News Match
Trump's plans to restart nuclear testing likely won't produce any mushroom clouds, experts say
CBS
•
Nov 4, 2025
How will ‘limited’ US nuclear tests avoid any explosions?
Al Jazeera
•
Nov 3, 2025
Why is there so much talk about nuclear weapons this week?
CNN
•
Nov 1, 2025
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about Metaculus NewsMatch
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