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    Created by: RyanBeck and
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    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Related question on Metaculus:

    SpaceX, NASA, and other entities are aiming to send people to Mars with the long term goal of establishing a permanent human presence.

    Neuroscientist and fiction author Erik Hoel predicted in a blog post published August 25, 2021:

    By 2050 there will be an established and growing civilian presence on Mars—a city on the Red Planet. [...] the first city will experience surprisingly explosive economic growth, adding population in a way no Earth city is at the time. It’s very possible someone you know right now will be living on Mars by 2050.

    Hoel later doubled-down on his prediction with some nearer-term predictions, including the first human permanent residents and initial base construction by 2030.

    Categories:
    Industry – Space
    Series -- Erik Hoel 2050
    Effective Altruism
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