Question

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters57

Community Prediction31%

Make a Prediction

community: 31%

median 31.0%mean 30.0%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Environmental science

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Environmental science

Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program? Here’s What To Know As Ex-PM Calls For Strikes

Forbes•Oct 9, 2024

Israel vows to hit back at Iran. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites? Can it?

USA Today•Oct 9, 2024

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%