Question
If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?
Total Forecasters59
Community Prediction
32%
(30% - 35%)
Make a Prediction
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Sep 30, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25%
If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?
85%
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84%
Authors:
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Sep 30, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?
25%
If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?
85%
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84%