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Question

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

4
1
Total Forecasters24
Community Prediction84% (80% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 84%
median 84.0%mean 82.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Nuclear warfare
Food and Agriculture Organization
Nuclear winter
Nuclear weapon
Nuclear explosion
Environmental science

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