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>1,000 Detonations Cause Population <400M

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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For simplicity, we will consider two detonations to be part of the same nuclear conflict if they occur within 30 days of each other (regardless of who detonates the weapons, who their targets are, what their motivations are, etc.).

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

This question will resolve as Yes if, 50 years after the final detonation as part of the first nuclear conflict (before January 1, 2100) which involves >1,000 offensive nuclear detonations, humanity's population is below 400 million. This would include, but is not limited to, scenarios in which humanity is extinct. The resolution of this question is not affected by whether, 50 years after the final detonation, the population is stable, rising, or falling; it is only affected by whether it is below 400 million.

This question will resolve as Ambiguous if there is no nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations by January 1, 2100.

For the purposes of this question, "humans" will be considered members of a species who could typically reproduce with typical 2021 humans without medical assistance. In scenarios where this question would resolve positively given that definition, but there remain >400 million beings that at least one 2021 Metaculus moderator would consider "human" (possible examples: some human-like digital minds; some possible types of genetically altered humans), this question will instead resolve ambiguously. This is because it is debatable whether such scenarios should count as population collapses.

No attempt will be made to distinguish the effects of the nuclear conflict from the effects of other events. That is, even if it's mere coincidence that the population declines and/or that it remains low following the nuclear conflict, the question can still resolve positively.

We request that you forecast your true beliefs despite the fact that a Metaculus scores may be unlikely to be tracked or cared about if this question resolves positively, given that forecasts on this question may play a role in informing important decisions.

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