Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

3
1
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction
37%
(15% - 44%)

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50%
community: 37%
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Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:Oct 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 30, 2021
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks