Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction72%

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community: 72%

median 72.0%mean 71.3%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Israel vows to hit back at Iran. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites? Can it?

USA Today•Oct 9, 2024

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

America Is Updating Its Nuclear Weapons. The Price: $1.7 Trillion. - The New York Times

New York Times•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%