Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Date of UK COVID hospitalizations peak


A key uncertainty in the UK is when the peak COVID burden on the National Health Service will occur during the winter of 2021-2022 .

As of 24 October 2021, the 7-day moving average for UK COVID patients in hospital is 8,528.3. The all-time peak was 38,434.1 on 19 January 2021.

When will the UK’s pre-March 2022 peak 7-day moving average of current COVID hospitalizations occur?

This question resolves as the date of the peak in the 7-day average of current COVID-19 hospitalizations on the "Patients in Hospital” graph on the UK Government's "Healthcare in the United Kingdom" dashboard.

1 November 2021 is the first day covered by this question and 28 February 2022 is the last day covered.

Also see this related question on what the magnitude of this peak will be.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.