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Hanson vs. Barnett bet on ems first


On Twitter Robin Hanson proposed,

OK, so to summarize a proposal: I'd bet my $1K to your $9K (both increased by S&P500 scale factor) that when US labor participation rate < 10%, em-like automation will contribute more to GDP than AGI-like. And we commit our descendants to the bet.

Matthew Barnett replied,

I agree to this bet.

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

This question resolves positively in the event that Matthew Barnett (or his descendants) publicly concedes the bet to Robin Hanson, and resolves negatively in the event that Robin Hanson (or his descendants) publicly concedes to Matthew Barnett. In the event that one party declares victory but the other party does not concede, Metaculus admins will use their discretion in resolving the bet.

Related question: When will the US labor force participation rate fall below 10%?

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