85 forecasters

Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?

3%chance

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 3% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 8, 2021

Closes:

Mar 18, 2022

Resolved:

Jun 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 9, 2021