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Addis Ababa falls to TPLF before June 2022

Question

It has been a little over one year since fighting broke out between Ethiopian federal forces led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and Tigrayan defense forces led by Debretsion Gebremichael following a disputed regional election and decades of tension. Ethiopian federal forces initially made substantial gains, including capturing Tigray's capital Mekelle, but these gains have since then been reversed — with Tigrayan forces retaking Mekelle in June 2021. Since June, Tigrayan forces have recaptured much of their region and have advanced into neighboring regions, namely Amhara and Afar. As of 6 November 2021, Tigrayan forces are within 200 miles of Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa. Tigrayan forces have moreover announced an alliance with other opposition groups, including the Oromo Liberation Army. Ethiopia has recently declared a state of emergency, asked citizens to take up arms to defend the capital, and rounded up ethnic Tigrayans.

Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 2022?

Resolves positive if at least two credible media reports (AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WaPo, WSJ, FT) indicate that at any time before June 1, 2022:

  • the National Palace in Addis Ababa is occupied by armed forces aligned with the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front

  • who are not known to be surrounded by enemy forces

  • and who did not arrive as part of a negotiated agreement with the internationally recognized government of Ethiopia

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