22 comments
85 forecasters
Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?
3%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 3% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2021
Closes:Mar 18, 2022
Resolved:Jun 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 9, 2021
Will the SAF maintain control of both Khartoum city center and el-Obeid in North Kordofan through December 31, 2025?
75% chance
3
When will the Myanmar military junta collapse?
46 forecasters
Will SAF and RSF delegations both physically attend the same peace negotiation venue before December 31, 2025?
8% chance
48