86 comments
248 forecasters
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?
60%chance
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Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 20, 2022
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When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
13 Aug 2029
(01 Nov 2025 - Aug 2037)
13 Aug 2029
(01 Nov 2025 - Aug 2037)
118 forecasters
By the year 2100, will any jurisdiction enforce requirements for all births to be genetically engineered?
55% chance
58
Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?
15% chance
78