11 comments
34 forecasters
Will Tigrayan-aligned forces cut off the A1 trunk route (Addis Ababa to Djibouti) by year's end?
44%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 44% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 8, 2021
Closes:Dec 18, 2021
Resolved:Jan 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 10, 2021
Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?
35.1% chance
35
Will China cut half or more of the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet before the given years?
25 forecasters
Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?
32% chance
1.1k