🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

Resolved :No1%
2
1
Total Forecasters77
Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
58.0
Community Peer Score
30.6
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
China
United States
Russia

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