Question

Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?

20 comments20

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closed:

Dec 31, 2023

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Economy & Business

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

The World Is Producing More Food than Ever—but Not for Long

Wired•Jun 28, 2025

Energy Insecurity Threatens Food Production

Forbes•Jun 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%