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Question

If there's a fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation by 2024, will the Metaculus community prediction on the question about that be >20% for a day during the week before the detonation?

Resolved :Annulled
Total Forecasters87
Community Prediction50%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 50%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 50.0%mean 44.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

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