Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Withdrawal from NATO by 2024

Flourishing Futures Nuclear Risk Tournament Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Question

Wikipedia states:

"[NATO] is an intergovernmental military alliance between 28 European countries and 2 North American countries. [...] NATO constitutes a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defense in response to an attack by any external party. [...]

Since its founding, the admission of new member states has increased the alliance from the original 12 countries to 30. The most recent member state to be added to NATO was North Macedonia on 27 March 2020. NATO currently recognizes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine as aspiring members. [...] Members agreed that their aim is to reach or maintain the target defence spending of at least 2% of their GDP by 2024."

Will any state leave NATO by 2024?

The question resolves positively if any state that is a part of NATO at the start of this tournament has left NATO by 2023-12-31. This requires that the state has actually left NATO by that date, rather than merely announcing its intention to leave or beginning the process of leaving.

This will be resolved based on an official statement by NATO, for example by the state no longer being included on the member list on NATO's official website.

If a current NATO member fragments into two or more successor states and none of those successor states are NATO members, that would resolve this question positively. In contrast, if a current NATO member fragments and at least one successor state remains a NATO member but at least one successor state is not a NATO member, that would not count toward a positive resolution.

For simplicity, in the unlikely event that a state leaves NATO by 2024 but then also rejoins by 2024, this question will still resolve positively, since the state had left NATO by 2024.

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site