Question

Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?

Resolved:Yes

39 comments39

Total Forecasters229

Community Prediction

99%

(93.2% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

15.8

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2022

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2021-2025 Leaderboard

NATO countries agree to spend 5% of GDP on defense: Which countries led in 2024?

FOX News•Jun 30, 2025

Map Shows How Much Each NATO Member Contributes as Trump Touts Increase

Newsweek•Jun 26, 2025

NATO members agreed to raise their spending targets by 2035 to 5% of gross domestic product annually on core defense requirements as well as defense-and security-related spending. That target had been 2% of GDP.

•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 22, 2022

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

NATO countries agree to spend 5% of GDP on defense: Which countries led in 2024?

FOX News•Jun 30, 2025

Map Shows How Much Each NATO Member Contributes as Trump Touts Increase

Newsweek•Jun 26, 2025

•Jun 26, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

12%

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%