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32 forecasters

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32 forecasters

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?

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27 comments47 forecasters

Nuclear Weapon Yield Over 30 MT by 2030

1 comment40 forecasters

Nuclear Weapon Test Over 30 MT by 2030

0 comments45 forecasters

Non-state actor acquires a nuke by 2030

34 comments121 forecasters

Non-state actor develops a nuke by 2030

5 comments21 forecasters

Total Nuclear Yield >10,000 MT by 2029

0 comments17 forecasters

Total yield of nuc. det. >50Mt by 2050

2 comments42 forecasters

>1,000 Nuke Detonations Cause 4B Deaths

1 comment29 forecasters

100+ Nuke Detonations Cause 100M+ Deaths