Question
How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?
Total Forecasters17
Community Prediction
10.4k weapons
(7040 weapons - 17.3k weapons)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <1000 | 2.1% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 7040 | — |
| median | 10.45k | — |
| upper 75% | 17.33k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >100k | 1.4% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2053
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Jan 19, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2049
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2053
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 21, 2022
