2 comments
77 forecasters
Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?
77%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 77% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 27, 2022
What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?
0.893%
(0.0533 - 0.979)
0.893%
(0.0533 - 0.979)
11 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21% chance
21
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters