2 comments
77 forecasters
Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?
77%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 77% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Nov 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 27, 2022