74 forecasters

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

65%chance

Annulled

The community gave this a 65% chance, and it resolved Annulled.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Nov 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 27, 2022