6 comments
74 forecasters
Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?
65%chance
Annulled
The community gave this a 65% chance, and it resolved Annulled.
Authors:
Opened:Nov 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 27, 2022
If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
Nov 2035
(15 Nov 2028 - Nov 2054)
23 forecasters
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21% chance
21
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
64.8% chance
31